Future Possibilities Index

The Future Possibilities Index (FPI) measures the capacity of countries to leverage possibilities emerging from six transformational trends for their future economic growth and societal wellbeing.

Executive Summary

Today's reality is marked by transformative changes affecting economies, industries, communities, and nations. Despite the uncertainties and risks, these changes present numerous opportunities for business, countries, and societies. To create a better future, it's crucial to establish favorable conditions in each country, enabling the world to capitalize on growth and wellbeing opportunities and progress toward Sustainable Development Goals. The Future Possibilities Index was developed for this purpose, offering a new perspective on business opportunities, economic and social development. By assessing how 70 countries navigate six key transformational trends, it aims to guide businesses in investments and assist governments in formulating long-term strategies.

How countries can leverage future possibilities

Over the last two decades, our daily lives have undergone substantial changes driven by factors like technological advancements, social media proliferation, climate change awareness, the rise of e-commerce, and increased global connectivity. These interrelated changes have diverse impacts influenced by geographic location, socio-economic status, and individual preferences. Looking ahead, these transformations set the stage for future opportunities. The key question is: How can countries harness them to enhance the social and economic wellbeing of their people?

The six transformational trends

One important lesson from the pandemic is the importance of reviewing the basics and the need to rebuild in a better way. The Future Possibilities Index (FPI) achieves this by investigating six major trends that are opening up new possibilities. It looks at the factors that decide how prepared a country is and its ability to take advantage of these trends. These six global trends are chosen because they are widespread, globally significant, and likely to have a significant impact in the next 5-10 years.

The six trends are the Exabyte Economy, the Wellbeing Economy, the Net Zero Economy, the Circular Economy, the BioGrowth Economy and the Experience Economy.

The FPI covers 70 countries, representing over 90% of global GDP. Its primary objective is to assess each country's ability to capitalize on the six identified trends. This assessment revolves around three key readiness areas:

  • Government Strategy and Policy: Evaluating the degree to which the transformation is guided by government strategy, policy, and implementation.
  • Industry Strength: Examining the country's capacity to leverage the trend, considering industry-specific factors such as sector establishment, innovation levels, and growth potential.
  • Core Capacity: Measuring the extent to which a country possesses the necessary structures, including policies, institutions, and other elements, to seize advanced opportunities presented by each trend.

Key findings of the 2024 Future Possibilities Index

  • The United Kingdom ranks first on the FPI list owing to a strong all-round performance, followed by Denmark and the United States.
  • The top 10 segment is completed by Japan, South Korea, and five European economies.
  • Among the large emerging markets, China (19th) leads, followed by Brazil (30th) and Malaysia (32st). Nigeria, Philippines, Bangladesh and Pakistan are among countries with room for improvement.
  • UAE (23th) ranks the highest in Middle East and North Africa region. Brazil tops the list in Latin America and the Caribbean. South Africa (50th) leads the Sub-Saharan African region.
  • Leaders per trend: Exabyte – United States, Wellbeing – Singapore, Net Zero – Denmark, Circular – United Kingdom, BioGrowth – Germany, and Experience – United States.
  • Brazil has the highest overall ranking (30th) relative to that based on core capacity (51st) due to its stronger trends capacity (22nd).
  • Conversely, Hong Kong (22nd) performs less well overall than its core capacity (4th) would suggest, with a relatively weak trends capacity (26th).
  • High-income countries in the bottom half of the FPI are Saudi Arabia (36th), Slovak Republic (37th), Chile (42nd), Latvia (44th), Uruguay (45th), Bahrain (53rd), Oman (54th), Kuwait (59th) and Panama (62nd).