The Future Possibilities Index measures the capacity of countries to leverage possibilities emerging from six transformational trends for their future economic growth and societal wellbeing. The Index also reflects countries’ performance on a set of core conditions that are relevant across all trends.

It is built on indicators from publicly available data, novel indicators developed for the purpose of this project, and the Future Possibilities Business Executive Survey.

Country selection

The Future Possibilities Index covers 70 countries. We focused on high-income and middle-income countries as they are better placed to grasp possibilities in the medium term. We excluded countries from which we could not get enough hard data or Future Possibilities Survey responses.

Transformational trends

The FPI assesses countries’ capacities to seize possibilities arising from six transformational global trends. We selected the trends based on factors including their potential to have positive impact over a 5-10 year time horizon encompassing most countries and several industry sectors.

Core and trend capacity

The FPI assesses countries’ potential to leverage each individual transformational trend through three pillars: Government Strategy and Policy, Industry Strength and Core Capacity. The first two pillars are trend-specific, measuring the extent to which the government is prioritizing the trend and the size of the current trend-related industry.

The third pillar, Core Capacity, measures the fundamental elements of a future-proof, dynamic economy and is common to all trends. Expert interviews have highlighted the additional need for collaboration between government and industry for countries to promote long-term growth and benefit from future possibilities.

The overall FPI score is calculated by averaging the six transformational trend scores. In total the FPI covers 181 indicators, of which 76 are qualitative and 105 are quantitative.

Future Possibilities Survey

The 2024 Future Possibilities Index is based on a combination of two surveys: the 2019 survey (weighted at 30%) and the 2023 survey (weighted at 70%).

  • The Future Possibilities 2023 Survey comprised two sets: the full survey containing 16 questions and completed by 1,274 business executives, and an omnibus survey containing 11 questions and completed by 3,829 business executives. In total, the 2023 survey was completed by 5,103 business executives.
  • The Future Possibilities 2019 Survey ran between July and September 2019 and comprised 23 questions, including information about the respondent. The survey was completed by 4,735 business executives and following the data editing process, 3,639 responses were retained, reflecting feedback on 70 countries.

Data collection

All publicly available statistical data was collected between November and December 2023 and subjected to a series of standard procedures to verify reliability, exclude outliers and fill in estimates for missing data.

We would like to acknowledge and thank our Knowledge Partner, Phronesis Partners for their support and contribution to the survey and data research.